Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,728$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(580 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,600.9}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10,600.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $575$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(113 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{517.3}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 25.9)}}\) (asimptote \(517.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,091$ on 2020-05-21

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,835$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(50.8 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,434.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 123.7)}}\) (asimptote \(56,434.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.56 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{293.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.5)}}\) (asimptote \(293.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,471$ on 2020-05-21

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,047$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(151 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,393.2}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,393.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(0.655 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $982$ on 2020-05-21

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333.6}{1 + 10^{-0.103 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(333.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.88 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.8}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 11.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-05-21

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $903$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(14.5 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,965.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 68.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,965.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(0.895 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 21.8)}}\) (asimptote \(11.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $871$ on 2020-05-21

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,003$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(478 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,805.6}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 70.8)}}\) (asimptote \(30,805.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $696$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(70.2 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{794.9}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(794.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,090$ on 2020-05-21

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,137$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(416 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $369$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(19.9 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,203.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 62.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,203.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,818$ on 2020-05-21

Cameroon⮸

Population $26,545,863$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,288$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(295 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,076.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 59.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,076.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $156$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(11.3 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{194.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(194.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,324$ on 2020-05-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Tunisia recovered 85%
Niger recovered 78%
Morocco recovered 18%

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,046$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(291 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,027.0}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,027.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $47$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(16 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44.2}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 17.0)}}\) (asimptote \(44.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $116$ on 2020-05-21

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $924$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(319 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{829.6}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 13.1)}}\) (asimptote \(829.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $60$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(8.72 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{72.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(72.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $111$ on 2020-05-21

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,211$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(704 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,788.8}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(7,788.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $196$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(57.6 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 19.7)}}\) (asimptote \(187.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,735$ on 2020-05-21